这家公司说它们能帮消费者节省最多40%的机票费

全社通旅游系统旅游网站建设发布时间：2017-07-26

你可能知道节假日的机票不便宜，也知道要尽量提早买机票，但在这些属于常识性的知识外，有个公司希望能提供更准确的机票价格预测服务。

Hopper 公司从 2013 年开始收集几十亿个航班的机票信息，公司的 App 能告诉你什么时候应该下单，什么时候应该沉住气，等价格降下来。App 声称最多能节省 40% 的机票价格。你只需要在 App 里输入目的地以及旅行时间，App 会在机票价格开始下降的时候提醒你。看中后，你可以通过 App 直接下单。

据彭博报道，这一App 的精确程度超过了其竞争对手 Kayak。

“所有人都想知道有没有一个订机票的黄金准则，”?Hopper 的首席数据师 Patrick Surry说，“但当系统实时进行调整时，很难有一个经验法则”。

Patrick 表示过去很多航空公司的收入经理会根据每周的销售目标来调整机票价格，但现在这些人正被计算机代替，因此未来价格趋势将更难预测。“过去，更多是人为的调整，一些经理会在周二和周三给一些闪电折扣，” 他说，“现在这些决定大多都自动化了。”

不过，即使是电脑也有其模式，Hopper 所做的就是用机器学习以及大数据功能找到电脑的运转模式。

下面是他们的一些发现：

Hopper 在研究了 3500 个国际航班后，发现其中有 900 个航班的最低价格都发生在周四，比一周其他几天的频率高很多。周四平均一张国际机票能节约 20 美元。星期一也是买国际机票不错的时间段，有 600 个航班在周一下调了大约 30 美元。

另外，千万不要在周日买机票，你几乎找不到任何便宜的价格。

而美国境内航班机票的价格变化并没有特别明显，很难找出价格特别低的一天。Surry 认为这主要归因于一些短线路的竞争。例如只有少数的航空公司提供波士顿到巴尔的摩的航线。而像诸如纽约到伦敦的线路，很多航空公司提供不同时段的选择。只有在这种“高产量”的线路上，需求和供给才会出现不同程度的浮动，因此价格也会跟着浮动。

如果一定要说美国境内线路有什么减价套路，Hopper 发现 3500 个航班在周四平均下调了 12 美元，也就是机票平均价格的 3.4%。

7 月份，美国有几座城市的航班价格浮动相对大。华盛顿排名第一，往返价格能下降 25% 最低到 239 美元。费城也可能会下调 20% 的价格到 247 美元。

GTFO 图/inverse

美国境内前五：

Washington, DC 25% ($239)

Burbank, California 21% ($196)

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 20% ($247)

Kansas City, Missouri 18% ($249)

Bozeman, Montana 18% ($381)

国际前五：

Grenada 32% ($580)

Cartagena, Colombia 30% ($354)

Cali, Colombia 28% ($481)

Toronto, Canada 27% ($308)

San Jose, Costa Rica 27% ($387)

这个公司旗下也推出了称为?GTFO?的 app（Get The Flight Out），专门针对那些喜欢“说走就走旅行”的人。你只要输入地点，app 就会告诉你今天和明天出发的最便宜的航班。

我们实验了从北京到上海的机票，公司这条线路的数据跟踪有限。目前只有 4 个航空公司，所以价格略高。不过订阅国际线路的提醒倒是个不错的选择。

You may know that holidays are not cheap, and you should try to buy tickets as early as possible, but in these common sense knowledge, there is a company hoping to provide more accurate ticket price forecasting services.

The Hopper company began to collect billions of flight information from 2013, company App can tell you what you should order, what time should keep the price down, etc.. App claims to save up to 40% of airfares. You only need to enter the destination and travel time in App, and App will remind you when the price of the ticket begins to decrease. After seeing it, you can order directly through App.

According to Peng Bo, the App is more accurate than its competitor, Kayak.

“ all people want to know there is no one out of the ticket, the gold standard, ” ? Patrick Surry Hopper chief data division said, “ but when the system is adjusted in real time, it is difficult to have a rule of thumb ”.

Patrick said that in the past, many airline revenue managers adjusted airline ticket prices based on weekly sales targets, but now these people are being replaced by computers, so future price trends will be even harder to predict. &ldquo: in the past, there were more artificial adjustments, and some managers would give some lightning discounts Tuesday and Wednesday; &rdquo said, "&ldquo, most of these decisions are now automated.". ”

But even computers have their patterns, and what Hopper does is use machine learning and big data features to find the computer's mode of operation.

Here are some of their findings:

After studying 3500 international flights, Hopper found that the lowest prices for 900 flights occurred on Thursday, much higher than the other days of the week. Zhou Siping can save $20 on an international ticket. Monday was also a good time to buy international tickets, with 600 flights down about $30 on Monday.

Also, never buy an airline ticket on Sunday. You can hardly find any cheap price.

The price of flight tickets in the United States is not particularly obvious, and it is difficult to find a particularly low price day. Surry believes this is mainly due to competition in short lines. For example, only a small number of airlines offer routes from Boston to Baltimore. And like routes from New York to London, many airlines offer options at different times. Only in such “ high production ” on the line, demand and supply will fluctuate in varying degrees, so prices will follow the float.

If we have to say what lines are on sale in the United States, Hopper found that 3500 flights were down by $12 on average Thursday, or 3.4% of the airline's average price.

In July, the price of flights in several cities in the United States was relatively large. Washington ranked first, round-trip prices fell 25%, minimum to $239. Philadelphia may also cut its price by 20% to $247.

GTFO diagram \/inverse

Top five in the United states: