庄辰超：回顾去哪儿十年　我对创业竞争、价格战的思考

这几年去哪儿一直在斗争，从最初到今天我们斗争了十年，成功的把全行业都搞亏损了。连携程上市11年的公司也亏钱了，今天我讲讲企业该怎么竞争。

比如一个领先的公司容易犯的错误，一个相对落后的公司机会在哪，以及怎么看价格战。

增长的策略

第一个问题，去哪儿上市以后，实际上我们一直亏得非常厉害。每个季度大概亏两到三亿的现金，会计亏损五到六亿，但基本股价还比较稳定。

有很多人问我说CC你怎么搞的，为什么公开资本市场可以接受你这一点？大家都认为上市是要盈利的，实际上不是这样。

大家去研究一下历史，Amazon（亚马逊）上市的时候亏得非常厉害，最高的一个季度现金亏损率是75%。我们基本控制在现金亏损率不超过Amazon的速度上在亏。

为什么资本市场能接受亏损？

你如果还不是市场第一，或者哪怕你是市场第一，你的业务增速和你的收入增速如果能够保证在60%以上，并且在一个比较长的时间内亏损，市场是可以接受的。

大家可以算一下，如果你维持在60%以上的增速，大概两年你能够把整个的业务翻2.5倍左右，四年能翻6—7倍，这个证明如果业务规模始终在高速增长的情况下，你的投入是非常有效的。而市场的空间，addressable market（潜在市场）是非常非常大的。

接下来大家会说，100%的增速你需要，这就出现addressable market的问题了，100%的增速能够维持多久？

每个创业企业就要想一个问题，尤其是公司进入C轮以后，你要开始非常清晰的定义你的addressable market到底有多大了。

因为大家在早期的时候，肯定是单点突破，刚开始启动点都是一个特殊的功能，来打开市场。

但是当你进入高增长阶段的时候，你要清楚，增长的尽头在哪里。至少在当前的产品和策略下，尽头在哪里？增长不是没有尽头的。

像今天的机票业务，去哪儿携程都是盈利的。我们两家加起来占整个中国机票市场接近一半，而且两家目前携程是40%，去哪儿是60%的增速，这意味着什么呢？

这个增速最多再维持一年了，因为再维持第二年的话，我们两家加起来要超过100%了，这肯定是做不到的，违反数学规律。所以如果你的增速已经注定在你的addressable market上不可能再长期维持超过60%以上的增速，那么你再打价格战就毫无意义。

反过来就涉及到领先和落后策略的问题了。

为什么去哪儿能够在携程六年以后成立，今天仍能够对携程制造威胁，一个最大的问题就是携程根本性的算错了他的addressable market，这个也是现在有很多在线公司所犯的问题。

这个具体问题是什么？

当时携程进入市场的时候，他一直说的是online travel（在线旅游）是他的addressable market，但是大家有没有想过，online travel是一个以每年40%-50%增速的市场，当你今天拥有这个市场50%的时候，哪怕你的增速也很快，你有40%-50%，但是由于每年市场的高速增长，释放出来的空间会非常高。

而且这个市场的增速本身，如果他是online向无线的引入，导致这个online travel是突然之间在加速，在加速的过程中，准确定义addressable market非常重要。

比如如果你把整个旅游市场定义成addressable market，那么这个旅游市场是有资源限制的：酒店总共就这么多，不可能一夜之间以40%-50%的增速建造出来；航空的飞机座位，航运力量就这么多，也不可能每年40%-50%的增速；餐饮可能增速比较高，但是中国大概这么多人，每天最多你也只能吃三顿饭，而且你早饭不太可能在外面吃，这个addressable market相对是恒定的。

所以我觉得有很多公司，一旦进入高增长阶段，看你竞对的时候，一定要把整个市场定义在一个恒定市场，相对稳定的市场上，而不要定义在高速变动的市场上。

在一个高速变动的市场，如果你是No.1，听起来非常爽，实际上蕴藏着巨大的风险，因为如果市场本身突然加速了，你的商业策略、模式很可能是会发生根本变化。

还有一种糟糕的情况是，这个商业模式从另外一个角度起来，他根本就跟你原来的商业模式不是一条路径，但是是一个根本上相同的诉求。

比如会议，开会最早的情况是会展，曾经有很多上市公司是会展生意。后来很大程度上被Video conference公司所替代，而现在你可以安全的通过IM非常快速的去meeting你的需求，所以我觉得当大家去定义addressable market一定要不断抽象它，它最终解决的是人的什么根本诉求，不用每天做。

但是我建议一个公司已经进入一亿美金以上估值，收入在一定规模，业务也在高成长的轨道上，你每半年要想一想，我这个业务往上抽象一个层次，是在干一件什么事，再往上抽象一个层次，是在干一件什么事，如果meet这个层次的需求到底我还有哪几种方案。

比如餐饮，在餐厅吃饭是一个层次，团购可能是一个层次；住店也是相同的，住店是一个层次，住店更上的一个层次是什么呢？是我出去需要住宿，有可能我在本地消费的时候，有住宿的需求，再往上一层，Airbnb提出了新的概念，你不需要住旅店的。

人根本性的需求是staying out，根本性的解决staying out的方法很多。

我建议大家不断地去想一想，你有没有一个更fundamental更抽象的层次，会给你带来不同的空间呢？

本质上你可以想一想，你现在的业务还有没有100%的增速或者是至少60%以上增速，未来保持三年的机会。

如果你看到现在的商业模式在市场已经进入到一个快要到最终阶段了，你的策略就会完全不一样。

比如说你看到你的市场已经接近50%的市场占有率了，那么你就要看是否盈利了，你的压缩成本、成本控制就要提前做准备。

如果你还是想保持一个高增长，你要考虑解决相同的根本性问题，有没有什么替代方案，有没有什么相同的临近市场的扩张性来解决根本性、基本性的需求，只有你把这些问题想清楚了，你才会采取一个不同的策略。

价格战怎么打

大家都说要打价格战，价格战可以拿市场份额，还有补贴，你为什么要补贴？

很多公司死是死在什么呢？他把价格战和高投入当做自己追求市场份额的唯一目标。

其实我的观点是，追求市场份额永远是一个战术性目标，真正的问题，是你要想清楚当你address这个market的时候，你要有一个终局游戏的概念。

如果你占据这个市场70%到80%，你要想一想一个市场最关键来源是什么，有哪些资源是不具备扩张性的，是具备相当高的独占性的。当你占完了这个市场之后，可能别人就进不来了。

比如旅游行业，典型的就是座位资源和酒店资源，因为酒店是不可能高速扩张的，这是一个独占性的资源。

像有的内容生意，版权就是具有独占性资源的，如果你战到一个终局游戏的时候，肯定是要把一些关键的独占资源拿到手，这样才能够保证你生意的模式长期可持续。

如果你需要独占资源的时候，就要分阶段，

你可能有5%的时候，你对独占资源或者某些资源有一个进入性，你至少可以用他；

当你有25%的时候，你对这个某种独占资源你可能有一定的控制力；

当你对某些市场份额达到50%的时候，你可能对某一些独占资源有完全的掌控力，可能排他。

在每一个市场的格局都是不一样的，但关键是说，对你所处的一个addressable market里要想清楚，哪些是独占资源，这些独占资源你需要多少市场份额才能够从量变到质变，这几个点要画出来，然后价格战也好，大投入推进也好，他整个的推进都是有一个非常明确的阶段性目标的。

49%可能是没有意义的，52%可能就要浪费了，50%刚刚好。如果你把计划制订的非常清楚，当你加速，就不要做填油战术，因为有很多公司看着是亏钱换增速，但是完全没有意义。

当你有个非常明确的目标：我今天的市场份额是5%，我认为到了15%我需要把这个资源、使用权限或者我的accessibility进行量变，当有非常清晰计划的时候，应该制定的一个战书方案是，用最短的时间，一把钱砸下去，一次性达到15%，马上打桩把这个资源给锁掉。

所以说，亏钱的速度不是一个线性增长，而阶梯性、台阶式的才是比较好的方案。

去哪儿创始人庄辰超

当你要开始亏钱的时候要亏得越多越好，亏得越快越好，因为这样，竞争对手不能够防范。当你亏到点立刻要收掉，因为已经达到目标了，50%刚刚好，51%就行了，然后打桩把资源给占住。

当你占住了以后，别人再抢市场份额你可以等一等，为什么呢？

有可能当你掌握20%市场的时候，别人可能也能有进入权，你防也防不了，如果你从20%到50%是你今天的财力，周边的ecosystem你整个人力所不具备的时候，你只能够让别人也做上来。

但这个游戏节奏是要自己控制的，所以价格战不要被别人拖着走，被别人拖着走的价格战是非常容易被拖到沟里去的。因为你并不知道别人的战略目标是什么，如果别人一打你就反击这是不行的，所有的价格战都要主动发动，千万不要被动发动。

但是在发动以前你要想得很清楚：

第一、你的战略目标是什么，你阶段性要的市场份额是多少，多少量你可以锁资源，你到了这个点之后怎么样锁资源；

第二、如果你要做这件事，时间的摩擦力是什么，是不是你在短期内投入一个亿就直接占住了，还是这个东西天生是慢慢的过程，在时间容忍的情况下，以最快的速度获到你要的市场份额，然后立刻收手。这个是我觉得打价格战一个非常重要的要素，这样你才能控制住；

第三、要想清楚回程船票在哪里。开始计划得很好，准备投入一个亿，打下去一看，竞争对手如果也明白，他也打价格战，你可能就达不到这个市场份额了，这时候大家要想明白，你要有一个退出计划，比如说我的计划是打一个季度，把市场份额打到十个点上，然后我把资源占住。

当我打两个礼拜一看，这个进展远远不如我想的，那就要立刻撤。所以说在开始行进之前，包括竞争对手的反映，行业里面的反映全部都要做好详细的计划。

整个价格战根本不是目的，甚至连市场份额也不是目的，真正的是，他是一个阶梯性的function，阶梯性的函数，当你打到一定份额，阶梯性到了你就占住。

然后你等一等看看其他局面，当你公司比较大的时候，你可能会有不同的业务线都需要在一定的时候快速获取资源，公司总部可能就会需要协调，可能在每个环节都会有比你预期的资源、时间消耗更长。这是我觉得大家在扩张期非常重要的一点。

很多公司扩张期最后死了，就是因为他光顾了市场份额，没注意锁资源，他是没有退出策略的。

当他哪怕是打到60%的市场份额，只要一停，马上会从60%跌到30%，这是没意义的，所以真正打的价格战要打到什么地步呢？

就是拼命打的时候，可能从10%打到13%，你一收你立刻能停到10%以上，就行了，一点浪费都不能有。

成长阶段如果你已经是一个market leader要特别关注的是，你的业务是不是还在高速增长，我的观点是说，如果你是market No.1，那么你的业务还能够维持至少60%以上的增长，盈利是根本不重要的。

如果你亏损达到100%就应该亏。只有一种情况你可以盈利，就是你已经100%的增速了，你真的不知道怎么花钱，怎么花你都盈利。

比如腾讯百度，在这种情况下你可以盈利，除此以外我认为盈利是有罪的。你把机会成本大量的让给人家了。当你dominate竞争对手，跟竞争对手三倍关系的时候，你始终打击他，就打出局了。

但如果你遇到个厉害的竞争对手，你稍微一盈利，给他一个机会，打到你50%的时候，你可能永远也甩不开他。

很多公司从盈利到亏损是可以一下子把公司打垮的，一个始终亏损的公司反而不容易被打垮，为什么呢？

当一个公司盈利了一段时间后，你公司的内控和管理会发生很多变化，你会开始控成本。当公司经过一、两年的盈利之后，尤其是上市以后，你的整个思维方法会变成是以盈利为驱动，当要保盈利的时候，你财务人员对业务的发言权会越来越大，时间越长，公司里一些比较激进的人会离开，相对做事情开始稳妥，比较balance的人会留下来，整个公司的基因就发生了变化。

所以这个亏不是人人都会亏的，亏损也是一种技巧。

In the past few years, where has been the struggle, from the beginning to today, we fought for ten years, the success of the entire industry have made a loss. Even Ctrip 11 years listed companies have lost money, and today I talk about how the enterprise competition.

For example, a leading company is prone to make mistakes, a relatively backward company, where opportunities, and how to see price wars.

Growth strategy

The first problem, where to go after the listing, in fact we have to very much. Each quarter may lose two to three hundred million of cash, accounting loss of five to six hundred million, but the basic stock price is still relatively stable.

A lot of people ask me, "CC, what's wrong with you? Why is the open capital market accepting you?" Everyone thinks that the listing is profitable, but in fact it is not.

Everybody to study the history, Amazon (Amazon) listed when thanks to very much, one of the highest quarterly cash loss rate is 75%. We basically control the loss of cash in the rate of not more than Amazon in deficit.

Why does the capital market accept losses?

If you are not first in the market, or even if you are the first in the market, your business growth and income growth if you can ensure that more than 60%, and losses in a relatively long period of time, the market is acceptable.

We can count, if you maintain a growth rate of over 60% in about two years, you can put the whole business of over 2.5 times, four years can turn 6— 7 times, this proved that if the scale of business has always been in high-speed growth, your input is very effective. And the market space, addressable market (potential market) is very, very big.

Then everyone will say, 100% growth, you need, and that's the problem of addressable market, how long will 100% growth last?

Every startup needs to think about a problem, especially after the company goes into the C round, and you have to start defining your addressable market very clearly.

Because everyone in the early days, must be a single point breakthrough, the beginning of the starting point is a special function, to open the market.

But when you enter the high growth phase, you need to know where the end of growth is. At least in the current product and strategy, where is the end? Growth is not without end.

Like today's ticket business, where Ctrip is profitable. Our two families add up to nearly half of China's air ticket market, and the two are currently carrying 40%, and where is the 60% growth rate, what does that mean?

The growth rate is up to one more year at the end of the year, and since we are here for second more years, we are going to add up to more than 100%, which is certainly not possible. It is against the laws of mathematics. So, if your growth rate has been destined to be on your addressable market, it is impossible to maintain a long-term growth rate of more than 60%, then you will be no meaningful price war.

Conversely, it involves the problem of leading and lagging strategy.

Why go where can be established in Ctrip six years later, today still can make a threat to Ctrip, Ctrip is one of the biggest problems fundamentally miscalculated his addressable market, this is now a lot of On-Line Company have problems.

What is the specific problem?

When Ctrip entered the market, he has said is online travel (online travel) is his addressable market, but you have not thought about, online travel is an annual 40%-50% growth rate of the market, when you have this market 50% today, even if your growth is also very fast, you have 40%-50%. But because of the rapid growth of the market each year, released the space will be very high.

Moreover, this market growth itself, if he is the introduction of online to wireless, led to this online travel is suddenly accelerating, in the acceleration process, the accurate definition of addressable market is very important.

For example, if you put the whole tourism market is defined as a addressable market, then the tourism resources are limited: the hotel has so much, not overnight rate by 40%-50% built; aviation aircraft seats, shipping power so much, can not be the annual growth rate of 40%-50% growth is relatively high; food may. But Chinese about so many people every day, the most you can only eat three meals, breakfast and you are unlikely to eat outside, this addressable market is relatively constant.

So I think there are a lot of companies, once into the high growth phase, when you see the competition, must take the market as a whole is defined in a constant market, a relatively stable market, but not defined in the fast changing market.

In a fast changing market, if you are No.1, it sounds really cool, actually bears a huge risk, because if the market suddenly accelerated, your business strategy, pattern is likely to be changed.

Another bad thing is that the business model comes from the other side. He's not the same path as your original business model, but it's basically the same thing.

For example, the meeting, the meeting, the earliest situation is exhibition, there are many listed companies are exhibition business. Later was largely replaced by Video conference company, and now you can safely through the IM very fast to meeting your needs, so I think when we define the addressable market must continue to abstract it, it is the final solution to what fundamental appeal, not every day to do.

But I suggest that a company has entered more than $one hundred million valuation, income in a certain scale, business is in high growth track, you have to think about every half a year, I this business to a level of abstraction, is doing what is one thing, to a level of abstraction, is doing what is one thing, if meet this level of demand in the end I have what kind of plan.

Such as food, eat in the dining room is a level of group purchase may be a level; hotel is the same, the hotel is a level, what is in a level on? Yes, I need to stay out of the room, it may be in my local consumption, there is the demand for accommodation, and then to the next layer, Airbnb put forward a new concept, you do not need to stay in the hotel.

Human root needs are staying out, and there are many ways of radically solving staying out.

I suggest that you continue to think about it, do you have a more fundamental, more abstract level, which will bring you different space?

In essence, you can think about your current business, there is no 100% growth rate, or at least more than 60% growth, the next three years to maintain opportunities.

If you see the current business model, where the market has reached a final stage, your strategy will be completely different.

For example, you see that your market is close to 50% of the market share, then you have to see whether the profits, and your compression costs, cost control will be prepared in advance.

If you still want to maintain a high growth, you should consider to solve the fundamental problems of the same, there is no alternative to what, there is no expansion of what the same near the market to solve the basic fundamental and demand, only you want to clear these problems, you can take a different strategy.

How do you fight the price war?

Everyone said that price war, price war can take market share, as well as subsidies, why do you want to subsidize?

How many companies die or die? He regards price wars and high input as his only target for market share.

In fact, my view is that the pursuit of market share is always a tactical goal, the real problem is that you want to understand that when you address this market, you have to have a final game concept.

If you occupy this market 70% to 80%, you have to think about what is the most critical source of a market, what resources are not expansionary, and are highly exclusive. When you're done with this market, maybe someone else won't be able to get in.

For example, the tourism industry, typically the seat resources and hotel resources, because the hotel is impossible to expand at a high speed, this is an exclusive resource.

Like some of the content of copyright is the exclusive business resources, if you fight to a final game, is to make sure that some of the key resource in hand, so as to ensure your long-term sustainable business model.

If you need to monopolize resources, you have to phase,

You may have 5% of the time, you have exclusive access to exclusive resources or certain resources, and you can at least use him;

When you have 25%, you may have some control over this exclusive resource;

When you reach a certain market share of 50%, you may have total control over some exclusive resource, possibly excluding him.

In every market pattern is not the same, but the key is that of a addressable market in your want to know, what is the exclusive monopoly of resources, these resources you need to how much market share from quantitative change to qualitative change, a few points to draw out, then the price war or large investment to promote or promote his whole is a very clear milestones.

49% may be meaningless, 52% may be wasted, 50% just fine. If you make the plan very clear, when you speed up, don't do oil filling tactics, because there are many companies look at the loss of money for growth, but it does not make sense.

When you have a very clear goal: today's market share is 5% to 15%, I think I need to have this permission to use resources, or my accessibility quantity, when there is a very clear plan, should be a gauntlet plan, with the shortest time, the money drop down to 15%, the one-time, immediately piling resources to lock out.

Therefore, the loss of money is not a linear increase in speed, and ladder, step type is a better program.

Where to, founder Zhuang Chenchao?

When you start to lose money thanks to the more the better, but the sooner the better, because of this, competitors can not guard against. When you lose money, you have to close it immediately, because you have reached the goal, 50% just fine, 51% will do, and then piling the resources to account.

When you're in possession of someone else's market share, you can wait. Why?

When you can master 20% of the market, others may have to have access to the right, you are not anti anti, if you are from 20% to 50% you are today's money, when the whole human peripheral ecosystem you don't have, you can only let others do.

But the rhythm of the game is to control their own, so the price war should not be dragged by others, dragged by others dragged the price war is very easy to be dragged into the ditch. Because you do not know what the other people's strategic objectives are, and if you hit back when others hit you, this is not OK. All price wars should take the initiative, and do not start passively.

But before you start, think clearly:

First, what is your strategic objective? What is your market share and how much you can lock the resource? How do you lock the resource after you arrive at this point?;

Second, if you want to do this thing, what is the time of the friction, is not you in the short term investment of one hundred million directly occupied, or this thing is naturally a slow process, in the time of tolerance condition, with the fastest speed to get you to the market share, and immediately close hand. Well, I think it's a very important factor to make a price war so that you can control it;

Third, want to know where the return ticket?. Start planning well, ready to invest one hundred million, playing down to see if rivals also understand that he is the price war, you may not reach the market share, you want to know, you need to have an exit plan, for example, my plan is to make a quarter turn the market share of up to ten points, and then I put the resources occupied.

When I watch it for two Monday, and it's not much better than I thought, it's going to take off at once. Therefore, before starting to move, including competitors reflect, the industry should reflect all the detailed plans.

The price war is not objective, even the market share is not the purpose, really is, he is a step of the function function, step by step, when you hit a certain share, step by step to your hold.

Then you wait and see the other situation, when your company is large, you may have different business lines are required for rapid access to resources at the same time, the company headquarters may need to coordinate, in each link will have than you expected, time consuming more resources. That's one of the most important things I think we're doing in the expansion phase.

Many of the company's expansion period finally died, because he visited the market share, did not pay attention to lock resources, he is no exit strategy.

When he even hits the market share of 60%, as long as a stop, immediately from 60% to 30%, which is meaningless, so the real price war fight to what point?

Is desperately playing time, may be from 10% dozen to 13%, you receive, you can immediately stop to more than 10%, on the line, and a little waste can not have.

The growth stage if you are already a market leader to pay special attention to is that your business is still growing rapidly, my view is that if you are a market No.1, so your business can maintain more than 60% growth, profitability is not important.

If you lose 100%, you should lose. There is only one situation where you can make a profit, or you have already increased by 100%. You really don't know how to spend money and how to spend it.

For example, Tencent, Baidu, in this case you can make money, in addition, I think earnings is a crime. You have given up a lot of opportunity costs. When you dominate competitors, three times the relationship with the competitors, you always hit him, out of the way.

But if you meet a tough competitor, you give him a chance and hit you 50%, you may never throw him away.

Many companies from the profit to the loss can be a sudden defeat of the company, a loss of the company is not easily defeated, why?

When a company has been profitable for some time, your company's internal control and management will change a lot, and you will start to control costs. When the company after one or two years of profit, especially after the listing, you will become the whole way of thinking is to profit for the driver, when to maintain profitability, say your financial personnel of the business will be more and more, the longer the time, some of the more radical people in the company who will leave, do relatively things began to sound, balance will stay the whole company gene changes.

Therefore, this deficit is not everyone will lose, loss is also a skill.